OUTLINE
Part I: Real estate and risk
Chapter 1
Introduction: Who should read this book and why?
Q&A with Dan Neidich: Rockefeller Center securitization
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Chapter 2
Statistics, Monte Carlo, Bayes Rule, stochastic arithmetic, and uncertain attributes
Q&A with Joe Pagliari: Public pension funds, open-end funds, and misalignments
Part II: The building blocks: Public, private, equity and debt
Chapter 3
What is real estate? Leases, buildings, cities, and regions.
Q&A with Michael Fascitelli: My journey through market crises
Chapter 4
The capital stack, optimal leverage, WACC and mortgage default.
Q&A with Michael Giliberto: Indexes, the G-L Index, and how markets think about risk
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Chapter 5
The lease: An options approach and upward-only adjusting leases.
Q&A with Doug Lyons: Looking for relative value across the capital stack
Chapter 6
The real estate quadrants: Interdependent and predictive
Q&A with Ethan Penner: Real estate myths and the birth of CMBS
Chapter 7
Property: The macroeconomics of performance and risk
Q&A with Owen Thomas: An office REIT with flexibility during good and bad times
Chapter 8
Office property: COVID, obsolescence, WFH, and conversions
Q&A with John Sischo: Office, the best investment opportunity since the RTC
Chapter 9
Risk analysis in practice: Retail, self-storage and housing
Q&A with Benjamin Shibe Macfarland III: Private institutional grade performance
Part III. Performance analysis, risk, and popular myths
Chapter 10
Asset allocation, with and without liabilities, and shortfall constraints
Q&A with Sonny Kalsi: Taking risks and working the opportunities
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Chapter 11
Optimal development: Linkage, the internal cost of capital, and risk
Q&A with Steve Wechsler: Witness to the birth of publicly traded REITs
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Chapter 12
Cap rates and hidden information: Avoiding traps with caps
Q&A with Steve Rosenberg: The role of creative improvisation
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Chapter 13
Liquidity: Turnover, MSA liquidity, and investment horizon
Q&A with Ron Havner: Defining investment grade and the securitization of self-storage
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Chapter 14
Is real estate an effective inflation hedge? Only in the long-run
Q&A with Jason Benderly: Dealing with messy data on Wall Street
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Chapter 15
A Monte Carlo model of GP and LP interests in a structured joint venture
Q&A with Ralph Rosenberg: Nimble navigator of cycles and sectors
Part IV. The public sector and collective risk
Chapter 16
Public sector risk: Introduction to sprawl and rent control
Q&A with Matthew Zisler: Starting a career during times of volatility
Chapter 17
Sprawl: An options perspective
Q&A with Dan Cummings: A strategic builder of investment opportunities
Chapter 18
Rent control redux: Prediction, assessment and opportunity
Q&A with Alyson Worthington: Development risk and mental toughness
Part V. Behavioral bias, investment risk, and an investor’s guide
Chapter 19
Cognitive errors, picking winners, and the winner’s curse: The risk of overpaying
Q&A with Susan Stupin: Acquiring and creating operating platforms
Chapter 20
Underfunded public pension funds, risk, and alternatives
Q&A with Richard Burns: Early advocate of institutional real estate
Chapter 21
Conclusion with an investor’s checklist
Q&A with Russell Platt: Creating value, growing businesses, and managing risk